Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 3.740815 4.435260 5.206344 6.123671 7.182775 8.364636 9.780722
2025-06-15 2.749609 3.695120 4.863196 6.400975 8.359395 10.756175 13.895682
2025-06-22 2.045364 3.064801 4.444786 6.422601 9.152389 12.750312 17.806258
2025-06-29 1.575825 2.599981 4.101654 6.416513 9.835339 14.626602 21.756497
2025-07-06 1.243601 2.239387 3.808021 6.386792 10.426297 16.392986 25.713079
2025-07-13 1.111059 2.154109 3.898711 6.922975 11.892601 19.549867 31.980794
2025-07-20 0.953210 1.985670 3.815178 7.150694 12.884023 22.072010 37.527665
2025-07-27 0.834923 1.859530 3.774441 7.430009 13.973736 24.835115 43.690520
2025-08-03 0.704903 1.679519 3.600635 7.438744 14.587684 26.864717 48.834349
2025-08-10 0.571197 1.459332 3.308208 7.176343 14.674250 27.994296 52.555511
2025-08-17 0.455380 1.248870 2.993928 6.816196 14.521716 28.670720 55.529162
2025-08-24 0.382654 1.120009 2.824676 6.715904 14.839862 30.199984 60.111201
2025-08-31 0.320644 1.004112 2.667489 6.627496 15.192155 31.866716 65.172754
2025-09-07 0.294973 0.977739 2.712120 6.987067 16.504177 35.479758 74.168677
2025-09-14 0.255475 0.902085 2.624082 7.032755 17.160386 37.878443 81.061068
2025-09-21 0.219963 0.827723 2.524343 7.034115 17.717549 40.125955 87.839314
2025-09-28 0.188696 0.756924 2.419326 7.004680 18.198926 42.256360 94.549171
2025-10-05 0.183927 0.772209 2.551342 7.587851 20.144299 47.588152 108.098766
2025-10-12 0.167715 0.743276 2.553303 7.835375 21.329349 51.403483 118.812876
2025-10-19 0.154825 0.722527 2.575201 8.138562 22.679220 55.679974 130.785306
2025-10-26 0.135474 0.670944 2.493865 8.148089 23.310743 58.430124 139.727755
2025-11-02 0.112078 0.594466 2.317919 7.863418 23.170429 59.439806 145.004415
2025-11-09 0.090435 0.516258 2.117550 7.472537 22.705761 59.661290 148.564274